Editor’s note: The initial information about the EU’s future was written in 2011 but not published. It forms a backdrop for what is happening currently.
The EU
Rightsizing, so you can become ‘lean and mean’, when you are the scale of the European Union is not something that can be done casually.
That helps explain why each time in the 21st century a EU crisis occurred, media buzz about a “two-tier” or “two-speed” Europe surfaced, gained more supporters, but then just as quickly disappeared.
But this time a European head of state openly endorsed it.
On Tuesday November 8, 2011, French President Nicolas Sarkozy pronounced, “the future model” is “a two-speed Europe”, according to both Deutsche Welle (DW) and CNN.
“One speed that moves “towards more integration in the eurozone” and another speed “for a confederation within the European Union.”
High Level Division
At the time, some publicly disagreed with France’s leader. On November 10, 2011, CNN’s correspondent, Irene Chapple, posted,
“Any indication that sort of line is being taken further – suggesting the eurozone could be a smaller club – is politically explosive. While it apparently reflects economic reality, it runs hard against the intense drive, led by Germany, to hold the bloc together. And so Germany has actively dampened the speculation.”
Ultimately, a unified decision was reached. President Sarkozy and Chancellor Merkel revealed the new plan dubbed the Refounding of Europe over the course of the first full week of December 2011.
It was decided that the 17 members of the monetary union would press on and the 10 other EU members would be welcomed to join them. And virtually all desired to do so. On Friday 9 December 2011 Britain was the sole holdout to the proposed changes.
Shifting Outlooks
Though a two-speed Europe once was considered politically explosive, some believe a de facto two tier EU has existed for some time.
And CNN’s Irene Chapple wrote that,
“Suggestions the eurozone is diverging into two groups is [sic] hardly controversial: One only has to look the economic performances of its 17 countries during the last 18 months.”
Like others before him, BBC’s business editor, Robert Peston’s pre summit analysis was,
“The implication is unmissable – that the eurozone will more closely resemble a superstate, with countries on the outside such as the UK unable to influence much of Europe’s economic policymaking.”
This view certainly appears to be on its way to becoming a reality.
EC President Barroso agreed with Chancellor Merkel’s public stance in November 2011; but some in Germany did not.
The view of Hans-Olaf Henkel, a prominent German, Financial Times contributor, and early advocate of a unified European currency, was in stark contrast to his Chancellor’s initial statements in November, according to Brett Decker of the Washington Times.
Henkel wrote in August 2011 that Germany, Austria, Holland and Finland should pull out and form their own stronger monetary union.
Decker added,
“German taxpayers are fed up with having to constantly bail out suicidal spendthrift policies in irresponsible countries.”
Europe’s leaders did not entertain Henkel’s proposal at the December 2011 emergency summit; however, the previously almost unthinkable became not so implausible – and in a brief 4 weeks.
And pundits — including Ken Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and former chief economist at the IMF, plus Dan McCrum of the Financial Times — speculated about the possibility of Greece and others leaving the zone or the EU — either through choice or being nudged out.
The Future (end of 2011)
So are the latest moves enough to begin to finally resolve the Europeans’ current sovereign debt crisis? That remains to be seen.
But one thing seems certain; the Europe of the future will not be the Europe of today.
Furthermore, should the current economic crisis linger much longer or worsen; this could propel Europe in a direction that will shock almost everyone.
Sources: BBC website, business news, October 27, 2011, Robert Peston, Eurozone: now for the hard work; CNN.com, November 10, 2011, Irene Chapple, Are we heading toward a two tier Europe?; Deutsche Welle TV, various dates; PBS News Hour, December 9, 2011; Reuters, November 16, 2011, EU’s Barroso: euro zone must integrate to survive; Washington Times, Friday, October 21, 2011, Brett Decker, Europe’s savior: A new Deutsche Mark–Viable economies need to break away from collapsing euro currency; Wall Street Journal Report With Maria Bartiroma, December 10, 2011
2014 Update
Although no one to date has left the EU, Britain’s prime Minister and his cronies have called for a referendum in 2017 on whether the UK should do exactly that.
According to the New York Times, Hans-Olaf Henkel continues to promote the idea of a group of Northern European nations forming a smaller more fiscally stable union. However, now he is doing it as a newly elected member of the European Parliament.
At the same time, other serious debates about how to fix the European Union are still ongoing behind closed doors.
Dr. Dilek Kurban confirmed as much in an interview airing on October 1, 2014 on Insight Germany, a GermanTV program.
Dr. Kurban, is “a leading political analyst. She formerly worked at the UN and currently is a Mercator IPC fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs” — a think tank based in Berlin that advises the German government on policy issues.
Responding to question about whether Turkey would become a full fledged member, Dr. Kurban said she did not think so and gave as one of the reasons that,
“EU is in crisis anyhow; the future of the EU is uncertain”
The interviewer also asked Dr. Kurban about a possible two-tiered or two tracked union. She responded,
“That is one of the proposals.”
And asked whether she thought that the EU would instead “break up”, Dr. Kurban replied,
“I think it will continue but the question, of course, is in what form, in what strength … a smaller but integrated and strong Union or it will … stay large but not so powerful. That remains to be seen.”
However, given the EU fiscal situation, the increase in British Euro-skepticism, significant parallel crises in the Ukraine and Middle East, with predictions from over 2000 years ago; one thing appears more certain than ever — that the Europe of the future will not be the Europe of the past decade.
2014 Sources: DW, Insight Germany, October 1, 2014, Dr. Dilek Kurban Interview; NY Times, A German voice, Hans–Olaf Henkel, Calls for Euro’s Abolition, June 19, 2044
