September 3, 2014 – Europe
Will the current crises on two fronts be the catalyst to galvanize an inner core of EU nations to federate? And will this convince Europe she should no longer delay building her own powerful military force?
The Perceptions
Some of the world’s strategic thinkers seem to think what is happening along Europe’s shared boundary with Russia as well as on Turkey’s border, a stone’s throw from ISIS, have much potential to alter Europe strategically.
Judy Dempsey is Editor in chief of Strategic Europe and with Carnegie Europe, a branch of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace global think tank. The Carnegie Europe website says,
“Every week, a selection of leading experts answer a new question from Judy Dempsey on the foreign and security policy challenges shaping Europe’s role in the world.”
On August 27, 2014, Dempsey posed the question many Europeans were asking themselves,
“Will Europe go to war against the Islamic State?”
One of the leading experts responding to that question was Sylke Tempel, Editor in chief of Internationale Politik at the German Council on Foreign Relations.
She replied,
“As long as the EU lacks a real common foreign and security policy, institutions like a European Security Council to provide strategic guidance, a high commissioner for defense, and a European army, “Europe” as a whole won’t be going to war anywhere.”
But she then added,
“If the situation worsens even further—that is, if IS can consolidate its rule over Iraq, if weapons provided by Europeans to Kurds end up in the hands of IS, and if (heaven forbid) European jihadists carry out a 9/11-type attack in Europe—then it might dawn on European states that Europe will have no choice but to take on the Islamic State.”
On May 2, 2014, before the fear of an Islamic State gripped the West’s attention, Austria’s Stefan Lehne – visiting scholar with the Carnegie Europe and expert on European foreign and security policy – stated,
“The Ukraine crisis could transform EU foreign policy, much like the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks transformed U.S. foreign policy.
He added,
“External threats and crises have always been a determining factor for the EU as an international actor. ”
And a mere month before that, on April 1, 2014, a Carnegie Europe website headline read,
“EU Defense Finally Means Business”
Now, double the reason exists for Europe to build its military into a strong unified force.
The European Council Reacts
The concluding notes from the special meeting of the European Council on August 30, 2014 show the extent of the EU’s concern.
Of Ukraine it stated,
“12. The European Council remains engaged in the monitoring and assessment of the restrictive measures adopted by the European Union and stands ready to take significant further steps, in light of the evolution of the situation on the ground”
And it added,
“14. The European Council is extremely dismayed by the deterioration of the security and humanitarian situation in Iraq and in Syria … ”
It will be most interesting to see how these two crises play out and how dramatically Europe changes.
Germany has already revised her foreign policy.
Read the August 27, 2014 Carnegie EU article here
Read the May 2, 2014 Carnegie EU article here
Read the April 1, 2014 Carnegie EU article here
Read the European Council August 30, 2014 Conclusions here (starting with III External Relations)
